| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 52-27 | 1470.6 | +11.8 | 1482.4 | 81.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UTSA | 43-36 | 1482.4 | +49.5 | 1531.9 | 49.7% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Arizona State | 15-34 | 1531.9 | -20.3 | 1511.6 | 30.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Nicholls | 35-3 | 1511.6 | +0.0 | 1511.6 | 51.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 30-31 | 1511.6 | -60.7 | 1450.9 | 77.4% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Troy | 41-48 | 1450.9 | -45.5 | 1405.4 | 45.7% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Marshall | 37-40 | 1405.4 | -19.3 | 1386.1 | 28.7% |
| 11 | Oct 28 2025 | L | James Madison | 20-52 | 1386.1 | -19.3 | 1366.8 | 17.7% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Louisiana | 39-42 | 1366.8 | -34.7 | 1332.1 | 48.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Southern Miss | 41-14 | 1332.1 | +61.1 | 1393.2 | 34.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | UL Monroe | 31-14 | 1393.2 | +13.9 | 1407.1 | 78.9% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | South Alabama | 49-26 | 1407.1 | +28.6 | 1435.7 | 58.9% |
| 20 | Jan 2 2026 | W | Rice | 41-10 | 1435.7 | +26.3 | 1462.0 | 69.1% |